Republican Trend Building as Election Approaches
1) President: Polls trending Romney almost everywhere
In the Democrat polls and those whose methodology favors their candidates (17 of 23 over-estimated Obama's vote last election) are basically calling it a tie right now. Others like Gallup and Rasmussen detected solid, strong movement to Romney.
2) Polling will be irrelevant at least until this weekend because so many states are in a weather mess.
3) Polling in every significant category is moving Republican - likability for Romney, approval dropping for Obama, who can deal with the economy best, female voters, swing states and now even Ohio.
4) Romney is close in early voting, as opposed to McCain who trailed by 15 points or so more than Romney. Obama has pushed incredibly hard for early voters (with Libyan news pouring out no wonder he wanted people to vote early), and supposedly had a far superior "ground game." Bad sign, very bad, for his side.
5) Romney stunningly ahead in Colorado, close in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin as well. This could trend toward a blow-out for Romney, or stay close. Still unclear.
6) Obama is panicked by the storm. Why? NE, NY, NJ and Maryland were supposed to be easy wins and will be. Pennsylvania could be different. Usually it is the Great Lakes rural areas and plain states, and some mountain areas, (all conservative Republican) that battle weather. No weeping and gnashing of teeth when voting is tough for them. I smell the "blame game" coming.
9) Some Senate races are moving Republican. I predict that Thompson will win Wisconsin, possibly by a decent margin. Mourdock will likely overcome bitter media bias to squeak out a narrow win (and if he doesn't, it will be media playing a "our way or the highway" game. Ironic isn't it. Plus Pennsylvania and Ohio Senate races are not over, and perhaps even Akin in Missouri. The voters are upset and want this group out.
10) The gains in those Senate races help Romney. My friend Pete Hoekstra is struggling in Michigan, as is the Republican in Minnesota, so that potentially hurts Romney a bit. Though if Hoekstra gains, he could help push Romney over. Klobuchar is so strong in Minnesota, and even Bachman is struggling, so seriously doubt Romney can win there. Ironically, Heller will - in my opinion - win Nevada, which also could help Romney.
If Romney wins, and the Republicans win the Senate (may come down to Mourdock winning), the national media - especially the print media and the major networks - will have egg all over its face. Which I am not very sad about.
P.S. In 1994, when I came from far behind to upset incumbent Jill Long, we were back and forth the last two weeks. But I could feel the momentum shift. When the Journal-Gazette poll finally put me up by 1% on the last Sunday, I knew it was a win and refused to even take a bet on a 10 point win. Momentum was huge. I won by 13. In the Montagano race, polls (other than our own David Winston polling) kept showing me close or down. I won by 15. If Romney, Mourdock, Pence etc have a lead or tied - the wins will range from close to huge depending upon the trends over this weekend.
