USDA's March Supply & Demand

USDA's March Supply & Demand
Created by rrummel on 3/10/2014 3:58:56 PM

Traders rate it 'Neutral'

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reportwas released Monday. Here are some of the highlights.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain endingstocks for 2013-14 are reduced with higher corn exports and lower oats imports.Corn exports are projected 25-million bushels higher on stronger world importsand the rising pace of shipments in recent weeks. Continued strong export salesalso support the higher figure. Projected corn ending stocks are lowered25-million bushels. Oats imports are projected 10-million bushels lower. Smallreductions in U.S. oats domestic use and ending stocks are projected. Theseason-average farm price for corn is narrowed five-cents on both ends of theprojected range to $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel. Price ranges are similarlynarrowed for sorghum and oats. The barley farm price is raised 10-cents on thelow end of the range to $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel based on recently higherreported prices for feed barley.

Globalcoarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 1.4-million tons higher. Globalcoarse grain imports for 2013-14 are raised 1.3-million tons. Global coarsegrain ending stocks for 2013-14 are raised slightly.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for2013-14 include higher imports and exports, reduced crush and reduced endingstocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 20-millionbushels to a record 1.53-billion reflecting continued strong sales andshipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced 10-million bushels to1.69-billion reflecting weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use throughthe first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean stocks are projected at145-million bushels - down five-million from last month. Soybean oil stocks arereduced on lower production and increased exports. Other soybean oil changesinclude reduced use for biodiesel and an offsetting increase for food, feed,and other industrial use. Soybean and soybean product prices are all projectedhigher this month. The season-average price range forecast for soybeans israised 25-cents on both ends of the range to $12.20 to $13.70 per bushel.Soybean oil prices are forecast at 36 to 39-cents per pound - up 1.5-cents atthe midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $450 to $490 per short ton -up 25-dollars at the midpoint.

Globaloilseed production for 2013-14 is projected at 504.3-million tons - down1.7-million from last month - as reduced soybean and copra production are onlypartly offset by increases for rapeseed, sunflowerseed and peanuts. Foreign production- projected at 407-million tons - accounts for all of the change. Globaloilseed supplies, exports and ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected lowerthis month - while crush is projected higher. Global oilseed stocks areprojected at 84-million tons - down 1.9-million.

WHEAT: There are no changes to the 2013-14 U.S. allwheat supply and use projections this month. A 15-million bushel increase inprojected Hard Red Spring wheat exports is offset by a decrease for Soft RedWinter wheat - with both changes reflecting the pace of sales and shipments.Projected ending stocks for both classes are adjusted accordingly. Theprojected season-average farm price for all wheat is raised 10-cents on thebottom end of the range to $6.75 to $6.95 per bushel based on recent strengthin prices.

Global2013-14 wheat supplies are raised slightly with a 0.8-million ton increase inworld production. Strong demand in the Middle East and North Africa boosts2013-14 world wheat imports three-million tons. World wheat consumption israised slightly for 2013-14. Global wheat ending stocks are nearly unchanged.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month ashigher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkeyproduction. For beef - continued relatively large cattle placements in thefirst quarter are expected to result in higher slaughter in 2014. Coupled withheavier carcass weights and higher expected first-quarter cow slaughter - thebeef production forecast is raised. Pork production is reduced from last monthas higher carcass weights are insufficient to offset tighter supplies of hogs.USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28. Broilerproduction is lowered as hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set andchicks placed. Turkey production is reduced as January slaughter and hatchery datawere below expectations. Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged - buthistorical data are adjusted to reflect recently published data. The beefimport forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but the export forecastis raised on strong sales to Asian markets. Pork imports are raised as pricesare forecast higher - but the export forecast is reduced as high prices areexpected to constrain sales. The broiler export forecast is raised as Januaryexports were higher-than-expected. Turkey exports are lowered. The egg exportforecast is unchanged. Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month -reflecting tight supplies and continued price strength for fed cattle. The hogprice forecast is raised on expected tight supplies of market hogs and strongdemand. Broiler and turkey prices are largely unchanged but the egg price israised on higher first-quarter prices.

Themilk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month - but historicaldata are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013. Fat-basis exportsfor 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter. Skim-solid exportsare unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales ofnonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese. Fat-basis imports are unchanged.Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates.Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are higher - supportedby strong demand and price strength to date. Class III and Class IV prices areraised on higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to$22.00 per cwt.


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