COLUMBUS, Ohio (WOWO) — Ohio is expected to cover its smallest share of the base cost calculated under the state’s public school funding formula in more than two decades, raising concerns about whether local school districts will be forced to shoulder more of the burden.

The statewide average state share of the formula’s base cost is projected to fall to about 32% in fiscal year 2027, according to Ohio Department of Education and Workforce data cited by NBC4.

That’s down from approximately 35% in fiscal year 2026 and about 43% in fiscal year 2024.

Historical data dating to fiscal year 1999 show the state’s share had never previously fallen below 40% before the current three-year decline.

The Fair School Funding Plan Work Group, made up of school superintendents and treasurers involved in developing Ohio’s current funding model, considers the projected 32% level a historic low.

The percentage, however, does not mean Ohio is paying only 32% of everything public schools spend.

Instead, the figure represents how the state’s funding formula divides its calculated base cost of educating a typical student between state support and the amount school districts are expected to provide locally.

The decline is largely the result of two parts of the formula no longer moving together.

The Fair School Funding Plan calculates the cost of educating students using expenses such as teacher and staff salaries, benefits and other operating costs. But those cost inputs remain based on fiscal year 2022 data, according to Howard Fleeter, a research consultant with the Ohio Education Policy Institute.

At the same time, some of the information used to determine how much individual school districts can contribute locally — including property values and income — continues to be updated.

That creates a growing imbalance in the formula.

“If the cost stays the same, the local share of that goes up, the state share of the cost will go down,” Fleeter said.

He described the progression from 43.3% in 2024 to 38.4%, then 35%, and now a projected 32.2% as the result of those calculations moving in different directions.

The issue comes as Ohio enters the final year of a six-year phase-in of the Fair School Funding Plan, an overhaul designed to change how the state determines the amount of money needed to educate students and how that cost is divided between state and local governments.

The plan traces back to work begun in 2017 by former Republican Ohio House Speaker Bob Cupp and former Democratic state Rep. John Patterson, working with school superintendents and treasurers.

The Ohio House overwhelmingly approved the plan in 2020, and lawmakers began implementing it through the state budget in fiscal year 2022.

The six-year phase-in was scheduled to reach full implementation in fiscal year 2027.

But Patterson said the plan was built on an expectation that lawmakers would periodically update the data used to calculate the actual cost of educating students.

That updating process was not specifically required by law.

“Most important would be to update the data inputs,” Patterson said.

He said that includes salaries, insurance and other operating costs, which should reflect the most recent available data.

Without those updates, the formula’s calculated base cost can fail to keep pace with actual expenses faced by schools.

Patterson and Fleeter also identified other components of the Fair School Funding Plan that remain incomplete or depend on older calculations.

Those include additional funding categories for students with disabilities, economically disadvantaged students and English learners, along with transportation funding.

Patterson said those portions of the formula now have studies documenting the associated costs and should be implemented.

“All of those categoricals, as they’re called, need to be implemented now that we have the studies done, and the costs of implementing all of those are indeed at our fingertips,” Patterson said.

The debate over Ohio’s school funding system has been underway for decades.

In 1997, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled in DeRolph v. Ohio that the state’s school funding system was unconstitutional, citing inequities created in part by its reliance on local property taxes.

The court subsequently issued additional rulings finding the system unconstitutional according to WCMH.

The Fair School Funding Plan was developed in part as an effort to address those long-standing concerns by creating a more evidence-based method for determining what it costs to educate students.

The current decline in the state’s percentage share does not necessarily mean Ohio is reducing the total amount of money it sends to schools.

State lawmakers have continued to increase overall education spending, a point frequently cited by supporters of recent state budgets.

But Fleeter said those two measures are different.

The state can increase total education spending while simultaneously paying a smaller percentage of the base cost calculated by the formula.

That distinction is particularly important for local school districts, because a declining state percentage can mean a greater share of the formula’s calculated cost is expected to come from local sources.

The issue could become a significant question when lawmakers prepare Ohio’s next two-year state budget.

Updating the base-cost figures before that budget would require lawmakers to take action and provide additional state funding to support the higher calculated cost.

If lawmakers do not update the figures, another opportunity to address the underlying data would come when the next biennial budget is written.

For school districts already dealing with rising costs, the timing is significant.

The base-cost inputs currently being used are tied to 2022, meaning the formula does not fully reflect subsequent changes in salaries, insurance, transportation and other operating expenses.

Patterson said the original architects of the plan expected the state to continue doing its part as the formula was phased in.

“The problem is, if you don’t fund the formula, everybody loses,” Patterson said. “We assumed that the state would do its part.”

With Ohio now approaching full implementation of the Fair School Funding Plan, lawmakers face a choice over whether to update the underlying numbers and increase state support or allow the current calculations to remain in place.

For districts and education advocates, the projected 32% state share in fiscal year 2027 is becoming a focal point in that debate.

The number does not represent Ohio’s total share of public education spending. It represents the state’s average share of the base cost calculated by the funding formula.

But education policy experts say the historically low percentage illustrates a larger problem: Ohio’s funding formula is being implemented with cost data that has not kept pace with the expenses schools are actually facing.

As students return to classrooms and the six-year Fair School Funding Plan reaches its scheduled final phase-in year, the question facing lawmakers is whether Ohio will update the formula and provide the additional money needed to fully reflect the cost of educating students — or allow more of that calculated cost to shift toward local districts.